Production of climate indicators for the Dominica island

Context of the project

In the face of the challenges posed by climate change, it is essential to have precise tools for understanding and anticipating the impact of climate change on local areas. The production of high-resolution climate indicators responds to this challenge by providing detailed, reliable data for the entire territory concerned.

Objective of producing climate indicators

The aim is to provide a sound scientific basis for decision-making on adaptation and resilience to climate-related hazards. This project is divided into two main phases: the production of territorialized indicators for 2050, followed by a specific analysis of Dominica’s exposure to climatic hazards. This approach is an integral part of our climate change data service, which supports public and private players in their management of climate and environmental risks.

Phase 1: Production of localized indicators of climate change to 2050

The first step is to produce localized climate indicators to represent expected climate trends between now and 2050. These climate indicators are produced to offer high spatial resolution and increased accuracy.

The projections take into account two climate change scenarios:

• A moderate scenario, where global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions partially mitigate climate impacts.
• A pessimistic scenario, reflecting a more marked increase in emissions and an intensification of extreme climatic effects.

Product indicators include key elements such as :

• Average, maximum and minimum temperatures.
• Intense annual rainfall.
• The frequency and intensity of heat waves.
• Droughts and floods.

These data can be used to map the most vulnerable areas, and then to identify sectors requiring priority action. For example, an increase in average temperatures could pose risks for agriculture and biodiversity, while an intensification of extreme precipitation could increase the risk of flooding in certain areas.

Phase 2: Analysis of the exposure of the island of Dominica to climatic hazards

The second phase focuses on an in-depth study of the exposure of the island of Dominica to climatic hazards by 2050. As a Caribbean island, Dominica is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, notably:

• Increasingly severe hurricanes, causing significant damage to infrastructure and ecosystems.
• Rising sea levels, endangering coastal areas and communities.
• Changes in precipitation patterns, which can lead to droughts or sudden flooding.

The exposure analysis is based on a combination of climate indicators produced in phase 1 and geographic data specific to the island. The projections include detailed scenarios of potential impacts on:

• Essential infrastructure (roads, ports, electrical grids).
• Critical ecosystems such as mangroves and coral reefs.
• Local populations, particularly communities living in coastal areas.

This analysis provides an overview of the climate risks the island may face, while offering guidance for implementing adaptation and resilience strategies. For example, the data could be used to plan hurricane-resistant infrastructure or to develop mangrove conservation programs as a natural barrier against coastal erosion.

A database to better manage climate risks

All the climate indicators produced as part of this study are integrated into a dedicated database. This resource provides centralized access to climate projections and their implications for the affected areas, with several benefits:

• High spatial resolution for precise localized analyses.
• Regular updates based on advancements in climate models.
• Accessibility for public and private decision-makers, facilitating the integration of data into local policies and projects.

This database serves as a strategic tool to anticipate the impacts of climate change and take appropriate measures, whether it be for urban planning, natural resource management, or risk reduction for communities.

An integrated approach to strengthen climate resilience.

By combining the production of localized climate indicators with a targeted analysis of a high-risk area such as the island of Dominica, this project is part of a comprehensive strategy for climate change adaptation. These indicators, along with a comprehensive database, provide decision-makers with reliable and actionable information to develop sustainable solutions.

Whether it’s a question of protecting sensitive ecosystems, securing infrastructures, or strengthening the resilience of local communities, the production of climate indicators represents a key step towards meeting tomorrow’s environmental and climatic challenges.