2025

Rail resilience to climate risks

SNCF

Rail resilience, SNCF customer case study

SNCF Réseau, as a railway infrastructure manager, is committed to meeting the challenges posed by climate change. With a network covering 2,708 km in the Brittany and Pays de la Loire regions, it is essential to integrate a proactive approach to identify climate vulnerabilities and propose relevant adaptation solutions. This case study focuses on the railroad modernization and maintenance project undertaken by SNCF on a key section of its network. This project is a model of how to manage complex railway infrastructures in a context of climate change and increasing operational demands.

Background and challenges

For several years now, SNCF has been facing multiple challenges linked to the ageing of its lines, the intensification of rail traffic and the impact of extreme climatic events. These challenges call for a strategic approach with a view to :

  • Secure infrastructures to avoid incidents related to material degradation.
  • Optimize performance to meet growing demand for rail mobility while limiting disruption.
  • Anticipate climate impacts to integrate resilient solutions for floods, storms and heat waves.

Objective of the rail resilience study

The aim of this study is to identify the climatic hazards that can pose a physical risk to the rail network, locate the areas concerned and describe the risk to the network in order to guarantee rail resilience. It will determine the sensitivity of network components to different hazards, highlighting the consequences of climate-related impacts. Finally, adaptation solutions covering the triptych maintenance / operation / design – regeneration will be proposed for the coming years.
This railway resilience study is being carried out using the methodology developed by Cerema. Hydroclimat is involved in stages 3 and 4 of this methodology. The remaining stages are being carried out by SETEC and Hydratec.

Phase 1: Collection and analysis of climatic and railway data

The analysis of the vulnerability of the Bretagne – Pays de la Loire (BPL) rail network to climate change is based on a rigorous methodology, aligned with the Trajectoire de Réchauffement de Référence pour la France (TRACC), in order to anticipate and prepare infrastructure adaptation.

The main objective is to measure the physical vulnerability of the rail network, taking into account the critical climatic hazards in the region. These hazards include flooding (by runoff, river overflow or marine submersion), coastal erosion, as well as extreme temperatures, intense precipitation and strong winds. These phenomena are analyzed on the basis of precise climate projections, notably data from TRACC models, for 3 levels of warming: +2°C by 2030, +2.7°C by 2050 and up to +4°C by 2100.

The study is based on a meticulous collection of climatic and railway data, including temperature, precipitation, wind and coastal projections. These data are cross-referenced with detailed information on the condition of infrastructures, such as the characteristics of railroads, engineering structures, hydraulic systems and electrical equipment.

This stage also highlights sensitive areas of the network, such as the Dol marshes exposed to marine submersions, or watersheds generating intense runoff. Detailed analysis of these areas enables us to zoom in on specific degradation mechanisms and identify the most critical infrastructures.
By anticipating these vulnerabilities, this phase establishes a solid basis for planning the necessary interventions and strengthening SNCF’s railway resilience in the face of the growing challenges of climate change.

Phase 2: Exposure and sensitivity analysis

This phase takes a closer look at the potential impact of climatic hazards on the rail network, and hence its resilience. Infrastructure exposure is studied to understand how current and future climatic conditions could affect components. The aim is to identify critical areas requiring priority attention.
Assessment of the physical sensitivity of infrastructure is based on detailed impact scenarios. These quantify the potential damage caused by climatic hazards, such as rail deformation under extreme temperatures or embankment instability during heavy rainfall. These scenarios, translated into specific maps, make it possible to visualize the differentiated sensitivities for each type of hazard and to anticipate the interventions required to guarantee railway resilience.

What are the expected results and their applications?

The results of this study will provide rail managers with a clear, structured action plan to deal with climate risks. This plan integrates operational tools and technical solutions that will strengthen SNCF’s railway resilience. Key expected benefits include:

  • A significant reduction in service interruptions thanks to better anticipation of climatic contingencies;
  • Greater infrastructure safety for users and operators ;
  • Optimize maintenance costs by targeting work on the most vulnerable areas;
  • Efficient preparation for future climatic conditions, contributing to the sustainability of rail investments.

This proactive approach turns climate challenges into opportunities to modernize the network and achieve rail resilience for SNCF, while meeting growing sustainability and safety requirements. Key deliverables at the end of the project include

  • Risk mapping: Visualization of areas most exposed to climatic hazards.
  • Action plans: detailed recommendations for reinforcing sensitive infrastructures, modernizing design repositories and integrating predictive tools based on artificial intelligence.
  • Synthesis of Vulnerabilities and Solutions: Structured operational report to guide future investments.

What are the prospects?

With this project, SNCF Réseau has laid the foundations for proactive, sustainable management of its rail infrastructure. Next steps could include:

  • The creation of a regional rail resilience strategy, involving local stakeholders, to adapt infrastructures to specific geographical and climatic conditions.
  • Regular monitoring and evaluation of the adaptation measures implemented, to optimize their effectiveness and share best practices across the region.

These initiatives will enable SNCF Réseau to maintain a high level of safety and performance, while anticipating the challenges of climate change.

Conclusion

This case study is part of our climate change data service. It illustrates the importance of integrated climate risk management for rail infrastructures. By combining accurate data, a rigorous methodology and appropriate solutions, this study helps to ensure railway resilience.