Country – Ethiopia
Objective of climate and flood risk assessment in the Borana region
The risk assessment in the Borana region focuses mainly on the analysis of hydrological impacts and flood risks. The aim of this project is to provide scientific data and decision-making tools to local and regional stakeholders, in order to anticipate and manage the effects of climate change on water resources and populations. By integrating a chain of impact models, a detailed analysis of flood risks and a mapping of future risks, this study is part of our specialized services:
Phase 1: Setting up a chain of impact models
The first step in this risk assessment is to deploy a chain of hydrological and climatic impact models adapted to the Borana region. These models will simulate changes in precipitation, temperature and river flow as a function of climate change scenarios.
The specificity of this phase is based on 3 pillars:
- Fine and territorial moedeling: taking into account local physical and hydrological characteristics such as soil types, relief and land use.
- Integration of regional climate data: projections from global climate models are refined to obtain results tailored to Borana.
- The generation of key hydrological data: including precipitation levels, groundwater recharge, and river flows, to identify future trends in the context of climate change.
These impact models provide the necessary foundations for the following phases, establishing a clear understanding of future conditions in the region and their implications for hydrological risks.
Phase 2: Flood risk analysis in the context of climate change
The second phase of this risk assessment involves assessing flood risk by combining the results of impact models with climate change scenarios. This analysis identifies the areas most vulnerable to future flooding, and assesses their frequency and intensity.
We operate according to the following methodology:
- Analysis of historical data: to understand past flooding trends.
- Projection of extreme events: assessment of the impact of climate scenarios on flood frequency and intensity.
- Vulnerability assessment: we pay particular attention to critical infrastructure (bridges, roads, housing), agricultural land and the populations most at risk.
This analysis is essential to provide a detailed picture of future climate risks and to anticipate potential damage.
Phase 3: Future flood risk mapping and technical report
The final step of this risk assessment is to translate the results of the analysis into usable visual and technical aids. Areas at risk are represented in the form of interactive maps, highlighting the regions most vulnerable to future flooding. This mapping will enable us to clearly identify priorities in terms of land use planning and water resource management. We understand that our maps can sometimes be difficult to understand, which is why we deliver them accompanied by a technical report presenting the results of climatic and hydrological analyses, flood risk projections for various climate scenarios, and strategic recommendations for risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. Local and regional decision-makers can therefore use this information to draw up risk management plans, strengthen existing infrastructures, and adopt more resilient adaptation policies.
Why is this evaluation essential for Borana?
The Borana region is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, notably due to its dependence on water resources and increased climatic variability. Flooding poses a major threat to infrastructure, agriculture and local populations.
The main benefits of this risk assessment are :
- A better understanding of climatic hazards: thanks to region-specific models.
- Anticipating future impacts: identifying areas and populations at risk.
- Decision support for local players: to prioritize investments in resilient infrastructure and water resource management.
By integrating this risk assessment analysis into our specialized services, we offer comprehensive, tailored tools to meet the challenges posed by climate change, while contributing to sustainable resource management and the protection of Borana populations.