Regulation - TRACC
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Regulation - TRACC
Faced with the growing challenges of climate change, France has adopted a Reference Warming Trajectory for Adaptation to Climate Change (TRACC). Based on the climate projections of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the TRACC provides an essential frame of reference for all adaptation actions undertaken in France. Through this reference trajectory, metropolitan France is adopting a coordinated approach to the subject of adaptation to climate change, making it possible to :
- Updating standards and regulations: Risk repositories and technical rules will be adjusted step by step in line with TRACC. The aim of this adjustment is to integrate the impacts of climate change in key sectors such as buildings, transport, energy and natural risk management.
- Supporting local authorities: TRACC will gradually be integrated into local authorities’ public planning documents. This approach aims to align local strategies with future climate projections, thereby strengthening the resilience of territories to the impacts of climate change.
- Helping companies to adapt: TRACC serves as a basis for companies to assess their vulnerability to climate-related hazards. Using this reference framework, each economic sector can draw up adaptation plans designed to strengthen the resilience of its activities.
What does Hydroclimat contribute to TRACC data?
In-depth analysis and climate score
At Hydroclimat, our team of experts analyzes and adds value to TRACC data by assigning a climate score to each indicator. This approach provides a clear, usable assessment of the level of exposure to climate risks, tailored to the specificities of each sector, territory or asset.
A climate score for :
- Rapid, simplified risk assessment: By transforming complex data into a single indicator, the climate score facilitates interpretation and enables rapid identification of areas or assets most exposed to climate risks.
- Decision-making support for companies and stakeholders: This score enables companies to integrate climate risks into their adaptation and resilience strategies. It also simplifies reporting and ensures compliance with the requirements of regulators and investors.
- Increased stakeholder awareness and commitment: A clear, accessible score raises awareness of the impacts of climate change among the public, communities and decision-makers. It fosters support for adaptation policies and encourages investment in resilient infrastructure.
Customized indicators
To meet the specific needs of our customers, we develop customized TRACC indicators, adapted to the particularities of each sector, territory or asset. These tailor-made indicators enable a precise assessment of climatic risks, taking into account local and sectoral specificities. Our methodology complies with the standards set by Météo-France. What’s more, it is based on climate projections from the Explore2 project, guaranteeing a reliable and relevant analysis of future trends.
Thanks to this customization, our customers have access to tailored decision-making data, aligned with national recommendations, for optimized risk management and effective climate adaptation planning.
What does each indicator correspond to?
TRACC comprises 16 indicators representing 7 climate hazards relevant to the insurance, agriculture, energy, infrastructure, health and community sectors. These indicators are designed to provide accurate information on the potential impacts of climate change and facilitate the implementation of effective adaptation strategies.
Temperature trends
Average summer temperature
This TRACC indicator measures the average temperature in summer (June, July and August). Projections for 2050 predict a marked rise in summer temperatures, which will increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.
This indicator is relevant to a wide range of uses and sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, energy and water management.
Average winter temperature
It is a TRACC indicator that measures the average temperature in winter (December, January and February). It plays a key role in analyzing the hydrological cycle (snow, ice melt) and the risks associated with winter conditions. By 2050, projections indicate that snow cover in mid-mountain areas will have halved. This reduction will be a direct consequence of rising winter temperatures.
This indicator is relevant to a wide range of uses and sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, energy and water management.
Average annual temperature
This TRACC indicator measures the average temperature over a full year. It is essential for monitoring climate change, detecting warming trends and assessing their long-term impacts. Projections for 2050 indicate a significant rise in average temperature, with major consequences for water resources.
This indicator is relevant to a wide range of uses and sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, energy and water management.
Precipitation trends
Cumulative summer precipitation
This TRACC indicator measures the total amount of precipitation in summer (June, July and August). It is used to monitor seasonal variations in summer precipitation and assess their impact on water availability. Projections for 2050 predict a 10% drop in summer precipitation totals. This will result in a reduction in water availability.
The simple definition of this indicator means it can be applied and interpreted for a wide range of uses and sectors, including agriculture, energy and water management.
Cumulative winter precipitation
This TRACC indicator measures the total amount of precipitation in winter (December, January and February). This indicator makes it possible to assess the contribution of winter rainfall and snow to water availability. Projections indicate that by 2050, winter rainfall totals will have increased by 20%. This increase should boost water stocks in natural reservoirs.
This indicator is relevant to a wide range of uses and sectors, including agriculture, energy and water management.
Cumulative annual precipitation
This is a TRACC indicator representing the total amount of precipitation over a year. It is used to assess water availability and detect climatic trends.
This indicator is relevant to a wide range of uses and sectors, including agriculture, energy and water management.
Thermal stress
Number of days with temperatures above 30°C
This TRACC indicator measures the number of days with a maximum temperature above 30°C. By 2050, the number of hot days will have risen sharply, leading to an increase in health risks.
This indicator is relevant for sectors affected by heat stress, including health, agriculture, infrastructure and energy.
Number of days with temperatures above 35°C
This is a TRACC indicator that measures the number of days during which the maximum temperature exceeds 35°C. By 2050, the number of very hot days will have risen sharply. This will have the impact of increasing urban heat island phenomena and health risks.
This indicator is relevant for sectors affected by heat stress, including land, health, agriculture, infrastructure and energy.
Number of tropical nights
This is a TRACC indicator that measures the number of days with a minimum temperature above 20°C. It is used to measure the persistence of warm night-time conditions. This indicator has implications for thermal comfort, public health and energy demand. By 2050, projections predict up to 100 very hot nights in southern France.
The indicator is mainly relevant to the healthcare and energy sectors.
Heavy precipitation
Remarkable daily precipitation frequency
This TRACC indicator represents the number of days when daily precipitation exceeds a certain threshold, defined by the 99ᵉ percentile of daily precipitation over the reference period. This indicator is often used to identify extreme precipitation events, likely to generate floods and flooding.
The indicator is particularly relevant to the agricultural and infrastructure sectors, and to the anticipation of CAT-NAT risks for the insurance sector.
Extreme precipitation intensity
This TRACC indicator measures the annual maximum total precipitation in 1 day, i.e. the greatest amount of rainfall in 24 hours over a year. Recommended by the WMO (World Meteorological Organization), this indicator is used to monitor the evolution of intense precipitation, and is to be considered as a potential aggravation of the risk of runoff flooding.
The indicator is particularly relevant to the agricultural and infrastructure sectors, and to the anticipation of CAT-NAT risks for the insurance sector.
Remarkable daily precipitation totals
This TRACC indicator is defined by the 99th percentile of cumulative daily precipitation, and corresponds to the value that is exceeded on average only one day in 100, i.e. 3 to 4 days per year.
Over the whole territory, daily rainfall totals will increase slightly by 2050. Any increase, however slight, should be considered as a potential worsening of the risk of runoff flooding.
The indicator is particularly relevant to the agricultural and infrastructure sectors, and to the anticipation of CAT-NAT risks for the insurance sector.
Heatwave
Heat wave
According to TRACC, a heat wave is defined as a period during which the average daily temperature reaches the extreme heat threshold on at least one day, but does not fall below the high heat threshold on two consecutive days, or even below the moderate heat threshold on just one day. By 2050, the average annual number of heatwave days will be five times higher.
This indicator is particularly relevant to the health, agriculture and infrastructure sectors.
Maximum summer temperature
This is a TRACC indicator that measures the maximum temperature in summer (June, July and August). It is essential for analyzing periods of hot days and heat stress.
This indicator is relevant for sectors affected by heat stress, including health, agriculture, infrastructure and energy.
Drought
Number of days with dry soil
This is a TRACC indicator that quantifies the intensification of soil dryness. A day is considered dry when the surface soil moisture index (SWI) is below 0.4. Projections predict an additional 1 month of dry soil by 2050, in line with rising temperatures. One of the consequences of this will be an increase in the risk of damage to buildings due to the shrink-swell phenomenon.
The indicator is relevant for drought risk management in the insurance, agricultural and infrastructure sectors.
Forest fire
Number of days with a high weather sensitivity
This TRACC indicator shows the number of days per year with a high risk of forest and vegetation fires. A day is considered at significant risk of fire when the Forest Weather Index (FWI) is above 40. Projections for 2050 predict that the number of days at risk will double, and the surface area exposed to forest and vegetation fires will quadruple. This increase represents a real threat to natural environments and biodiversity.
The indicator is relevant to fire risk management in relation to agriculture, infrastructure, human health and urban and regional planning.