Climate impacts for an industrial cement plant
In the context of climate change, it is essential to assess the potential impact of future climatic conditions on industrial sites. A prospective study has recently been carried out on the cement plant sites operated by the Vicat Group in Isère, France. The aim of this project is to identify climate risks and their impact on the management and sustainability of the facilities. This study is part of our climate change data service.
Objective: anticipate climate impacts
The main objective of anticipate climate impacts is to provide an accurate assessment of future climate impacts in order to guide strategic and effective decisions. This approach aims firstly to identify critical climatic hazards that could affect infrastructure and operations. Secondly, it aims to propose technical and logistical adjustments to strengthen the resilience of sites in the face of climatic challenges. Finally, climate projections will be integrated into long-term site maintenance and development plans.
Phase 1: Collection and correction of climatic data
The data from the latest IPCC climate models (CMIP6) have been corrected to reduce systemic biases often present in climate simulations. These biases typically include the underestimation of extreme precipitation events or the overestimation of average temperatures. Additionally, the data have been refined to achieve a high spatial resolution of 1 km.
The adjustments were made using the CDF-t (Cumulative Distribution Function – transform) correction method. This technique involves cross-referencing climate model outputs with high-resolution local observations (1 km) to better align the statistical distributions of simulated climate variables with real-world data. By leveraging detailed and representative local observations, this approach ensures that the corrected data are more accurate and reliable for fine-scale analyses and projections.
These enhanced and densified datasets provide researchers and decision-makers with valuable tools for assessing climate risks, developing robust adaptation strategies, and implementing environmental management policies tailored to local or regional conditions.
Phase 2: Production of specific climate indicators
In this second phase of anticipating climate impacts, we calculated twelve climate indicators. These were calculated for different time horizons and climate scenarios, covering key parameters such as :
- Temperatures (98th and 2nd percentiles of maximum and minimum temperatures).
- Precipitation (maximum intensity over 1 or 5 days).
- Maximum wind speeds.
- Atmospheric pressure.
These indicators were evaluated for two contrasting socio-economic scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) over two time horizons: 2036-2065 and 2056-2085. This step is essential for the rest of the prospective study.
Phase 3: Mapping climate projections
The results have been spatially interpolated to a resolution of 100 meters to provide a detailed view of climatic risks on the sites. Hydroclimat produces maps that help to identify areas exposed to climatic risk. What’s more, they clearly show deviations from the current period.
What are the expected results?
The results of this climate impact anticipation study will provide strategic tools for adapting sites and industrial operations, namely :
- Thermal management of facilities: adjusting cooling systems for future temperature rises.
- Optimizing infrastructure to cope with heavy rainfall: adapting infrastructure by means of drainage systems, retention basins and reinforced materials. The aim is to prevent flooding and limit structural damage.
- Investment planning: integrating climate projections into long-term decisions to ensure infrastructure sustainability.
- Strengthening critical infrastructures: identifying areas and equipment requiring adjustments to withstand climatic risks.
A proactive approach to sustainable resilience
This prospective study on anticipating climate impacts provides a better understanding of the climatic challenges that the industrial site and its activity could face in the years to come. It also provides concrete advice on how to anticipate these challenges and deal with them effectively. This in-depth work helps to identify potential risks, while proposing appropriate solutions. The result is a more resilient infrastructure that can be managed sustainably, even in an ever-changing climate.
Thanks to this proactive approach of anticipating climate impacts, the Vicat Group has positioned itself as a player committed to adapting to climate change. It guarantees the durability and performance of its infrastructures in a constantly changing environment.