2023/2024

Case study of the impact of climate change on water needs and resources in the Lot watershed up to 2050

EPTB LOT

Country – France

Impacts of climate change: the aim of developing a sustainable strategy

Faced with the growing challenges of climate change, the management of water resources and aquatic environments requires a proactive, local approach. The aim of this study is to design a strategy combining adaptation and mitigation of climate impacts, based on prospective analyses and advanced decision-making tools. This initiative is based on a methodology organized in several key stages, combining the production of hydroclimatic projections, scoring of exposure to climate change, sensitivity analysis and vulnerability diagnosis using Ademe’s TACCT tool to structure the actions to be implemented. This study offers innovative solutions to ensure sustainable management of water resources in local areas.

Phase 1: Production of territorial hydroclimatic projections

The first phase of the study of climate change impacts consists in producing territorialized hydroclimatic projections that will enable us to anticipate future changes in hydrological regimes. These projections are based on regional and global climate models, adapted to the specific geographical features of the areas under study. Thanks to the integration of data such as rainfall variations, temperatures and river flows, this stage will provide a solid basis for analyzing climatic impacts on water resources.

Phase 2: Exposure scoring

The second phase of this study is based on assessing the exposure of territories and aquatic environments to future climate hazards. This involves quantifying and mapping the potential impacts of climate change through key indicators, such as the frequency and intensity of droughts, floods and variations in river flows. Using high-resolution hydroclimatic projections, this analysis enables us to identify the areas most exposed to climate risks, by means of an exposure score to prioritize adaptation actions.

Phase 3: Sensitivity analysis

The third phase focuses on analyzing the sensitivity of water resources and uses to climate variations. This step aims to determine the extent to which local issues such as agriculture, biodiversity and resources are sensitive to the changes identified in the previous phase. Using specific data on the resilience of ecosystems and infrastructures, this analysis provides a precise view of the critical factors to be monitored and the adjustments required to limit impacts.

Phase 4: Vulnerability assessment

The fourth phase builds on the results of the previous phases to establish an in-depth diagnosis of territories’ vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. This stage combines exposure scoring and sensitivity analysis data to identify the most vulnerable areas, ecosystems and uses.

Expected results and applications

At the end of this study, decision-makers will have a clear and detailed strategy for meeting the challenges of climate change, based on 3 major axes:

  • Protecting aquatic environments: ensuring their resilience to climate impacts while preserving their biodiversity.
  • Sustainable management of water uses: ensuring a balance between the needs of different sectors (agriculture, industry, drinking water supply) and the availability of resources.
  • Preparing for future scenarios: integrating climate uncertainties into local policies, adopting an adaptive approach.

Hydroclimatic projections and vulnerability assessments will be translated into cartographic tools and technical reports, providing a clear and precise vision of the challenges and opportunities specific to each area.

An integrated approach to regional resilience to climate change

This project is part of a proactive approach aimed at transforming climate challenges into opportunities for innovation and sustainability. By combining the expertise of our climate change and water resources data departments, we are able to provide tailor-made solutions to support local players in their transition to resilient water resources management.

Thanks to this strategy, regions will be better prepared to cope with the impacts of climate change, while making the most of ecosystems as essential levers for mitigation and adaptation.