Country – France and Australia
Objective of the climate change vulnerability analysis for real estate assets in France and Australia
In the context of climate change, it is essential to assess the impact of this phenomenon on real estate assets, in order to anticipate the financial risks and vulnerabilities involved. This vulnerability analysis has been specially developed for properties located in France and Australia, two regions with different climatic conditions that are vulnerable to extreme weather conditions.
This approach aims to provide asset owners and managers with an accurate understanding of the impact of climate change on the value and integrity of their buildings in the future. In order to achieve this, the vulnerability analysis is divided into two main steps: the creation of a vulnerability matrix, and then the assessment of building elements according to future scenarios for the Vinci company.
Phase 1: Co-construction of a vulnerability matrix with the customeR
To begin this vulnerability analysis, it is necessary to create a customized vulnerability matrix with the customer. It is crucial to take this step in order to better understand the specific nature of the business, the assets concerned and the climatic risks they face. Indeed, each building stock has its own specific characteristics which impact on its reactivity to climatic hazards, such as the type of construction, its location, its exposure to meteorological phenomena and even its use can play a decisive role.
The co-construction of this matrix will enable us to define the key elements for each asset according to their location and exposure to hazards such as floods, heat waves, forest fires (especially in Australia), storms or drought episodes. This collaboration with the customer offers the advantage of structuring information in a way that accurately reflects the customer’s needs and priorities, while taking into account the financial and operational aspects that are essential to their business.
Phase 2: Matrix analysis of building component vulnerability
After creating a specific vulnerability matrix, the second phase consists of a matrix analysis of the vulnerabilities of the various building components. This step is based on climate projections for a future horizon, taking into account applicable socio-economic scenarios. The aim is to project how each building component – from foundations to roofing, including heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems – could be affected by climate change.
The matrix analysis approach is based on climate change scenarios, and includes factors such as the rise in average temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. Thanks to these scenarios, building owners and managers have a better understanding of the durability and resistance of their buildings. A warming of 1.5°C or 2°C, for example, could have a considerable impact on air-conditioning systems in Australia, while in France, buildings could need to be reinforced to cope with more violent storms and heavy rainfall.
The analysis also takes into account economic dynamics, including the potential increase in maintenance costs in the context of more extreme climatic conditions. For example, a building stock in a region prone to heavy rainfall could require structural reinforcement work to avoid costly deterioration.
Why conduct a vulnerability analysis?
Climate change vulnerability analysis is a key component of our climate change data service, designed to support property managers in their adaptation and resilience strategies. With clear information and a well-defined vulnerability matrix, owners can make informed decisions about investments to strengthen buildings in the face of climate risks.
In France as in Australia, where the climate is increasingly unpredictable, this approach guarantees the sustainability of real estate assets and ensures adequate protection against the impacts of climate change.
Whether it’s a question of improving insulation capacities, reinforcing building structures or adapting HVAC systems, this analysis provides recommendations tailored to the specifics of each region and customer expectations. Ultimately, the aim is to help managers optimize their resources and minimize the costs associated with climatic degradation, while ensuring the safety and well-being of occupants.
Example of a vulnerability analysis :
How can we understand this vulnerability analysis?
The vulnerability analysis illustrated in this diagram provides a detailed analysis of the various impacts of climate change on a building stock by 2060, according to the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. This scenario, based on a trajectory of high greenhouse gas emissions, envisages significant climatic transformations, both in terms of progressive phenomena and extreme events. The main aim of this matrix is to assess the ability of the various real estate components to withstand climatic hazards, in order to guide adaptation strategies.
A classification of climatic hazards
On the first axis of this vulnerability analysis, we can distinguish two categories of climatic hazards: trend hazards and extreme hazards.
- Trend hazards are progressive phenomena such as rising average temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns or prolonged droughts. Although insidious, the impact of these changes is generally limited and diffuse over the long term.
- Extreme hazards, on the other hand, are one-off, intense events such as heat waves, floods and storms. These phenomena have a high destructive potential and mainly affect critical infrastructures and sensitive systems.
This classification makes it possible to differentiate risks according to their intensity and temporality, while highlighting adaptation priorities.
A targeted assessment of real estate infrastructures
The second part of the vulnerability analysis assesses the vulnerability of real estate components to climatic hazards. These components are divided into two main categories:
- Materials, including superstructure (building framework), infrastructure (foundations) and envelope (exterior walls and insulation).
- Networks, including plumbing and sanitation, heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, as well as electrical and communications networks (VDI).
Each intersection between a hazard and a component is coded according to a level of vulnerability:
- Null (pale yellow) : No significant impact.
- Low (bright yellow): Limited impact, requiring minor adaptations.
- Moderate (orange): Significant impacts requiring targeted action.
- High (red): Major risks requiring major structural renovation or reinforcement.
Results and key findings
The results of the vulnerability analysis show that trend hazards, such as the gradual rise in temperatures, have little or no overall impact on the majority of property components. However, certain vulnerabilities emerge for specific elements, such as ventilation and air conditioning systems, which will need to be adapted to meet increased demand in the summer months.
Extreme hazards, on the other hand, represent much more significant threats. For example:
- Heat waves and extreme temperatures have a major impact on HVAC systems, increasing the risk of malfunctions and overheating.
- Flooding has a severe impact on infrastructure and sewage systems, requiring drainage systems and reinforced protection.
- Storms endanger electrical and telecommunications networks, as well as the integrity of building envelopes, especially roofs and facades.
Conclusion: Preparing infrastructures for tomorrow's climate
This vulnerability analysis highlights the adaptation priorities for a building stock by 2060. While trend hazards can be managed through gradual adjustments, extreme hazards require more substantial investments to reinforce the resilience of critical infrastructures. Improving air-conditioning systems, installing flood protection and securing power grids are all essential measures for limiting the impact of climate change. What’s more, this vulnerability analysis helps to improve human comfort in the face of all the phenomena mentioned above.
By anticipating these risks, property managers can not only protect their assets, but also guarantee the safety and comfort of users in an increasingly unpredictable climate.
In conclusion, this climate change vulnerability analysis for building stock offers a proactive, data-driven vision for anticipating the financial impacts of climate hazards. Thanks to a two-phase approach – from the co-construction of a vulnerability matrix to the analysis of building components – this study enables us to better understand and manage the risks associated with climate change, thus contributing to the sustainable and resilient management of real estate assets.