2022/2023

Forecasting flood risk and infrastructure flooding in the South of France in 2023

CNES

Country – France

Flood risk: Development of a hydrological and hydraulic simulation chain for flood management

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly floods. To meet these challenges, an innovative hydrological and hydraulic simulation chain has been developed. This tool aims to assess and anticipate flood risks in any region of the world, taking into account past, present and future climates.

Based on advanced M3E© technology, this project has been designed to meet the needs of decision-makers by providing reliable data and accurate simulations. Part-funded by the France Relance program, it forms part of our flood data services, which offer comprehensive solutions for hydrological risk management.

A comprehensive tool to anticipate flood risk

The main aim of this project is to create a robust solution for analyzing and quantifying flood risk in different contexts. This tool will meet the critical challenges posed by the intensification of climatic hazards, particularly for infrastructures, urban areas and ecosystems.

The project is structured around three complementary phases, aimed at perfecting each stage of the simulation process.

Phase 1: Set-up and automatic calibration

The first phase of this flood risk forecast involved the deployment of an automated hydrological modeling system based on M3E©. This stage involved processing and integrating hydrological data from various sources, such as field observations and satellite data.

Particular attention was paid to the calibration of the models to ensure their relevance in different geographical contexts. This has enabled us to accurately simulate key parameters such as river flows and the frequency of extreme precipitation events. This system can be adapted to any scale, from local watersheds to large cross-border regions.

Phase 2: Real-time forecasting

The second phase marked the transition to real-time operational forecasting. Thanks to advanced algorithms, the system can now provide hourly projections to anticipate floods and improve crisis management.

This mode of operation enables local authorities to respond rapidly to emergency situations. By integrating up-to-date meteorological data, the M3E© chain becomes an essential tool for reducing the human and economic impact of flooding.

Phase 3: Integration of the hydraulic component

The final step was to complete the hydrological chain with hydraulic modeling. This makes it possible to simulate the spread of water over land and map areas at risk of flooding.

This component includes the analysis of existing infrastructures, such as dikes and dams, to assess their effectiveness in the face of future scenarios. The simulations produced offer a clear vision of flood risk, taking into account expected climate change.

A tool for decision-makers

This project provides concrete solutions for flood risk management. Simulation results are translated into detailed maps and technical reports, providing decision-makers with the tools they need to :

  • Identify areas vulnerable to flooding.
  • Planning resilient infrastructures.
  • Anticipate long-term climate impacts.

Thanks to its flexibility, the M3E© chain can be rapidly deployed in any region of the world, offering a response adapted to the specific challenges of each territory.

Towards sustainable hydrological risk management

The final step was to complete the hydrological chain with hydraulic modeling. This makes it possible to simulate the spread of water over land and map areas at risk of flooding.

This component includes the analysis of existing infrastructures, such as dikes and dams, to assess their effectiveness in the face of future scenarios. The simulations produced offer a clear vision of the risk of flooding, taking into account expected climate change.

An innovation supported by France Relance

Part-funded by the France Relance program, this initiative reflects the French government’s commitment to cutting-edge technologies for climate adaptation. This support accelerated the project’s development and ensured its alignment with international standards.